The competition may be hard to spot

It's easy in our trade to point at the mass merchants as the prime competition for smaller independent garden centers. When you go to Home Depot or Lowe's and see the line of people snaking out the door on a sunny weekend, you might think, "That's where all my customers went".  After all, the box stores most resemble our brick and mortar operations in that you have to go to the store and buy stuff.

What we need to notice is not so noticeable. It's the power of The Internet to draw business from your store. You don't see the people who now buy their fertilizer online instead of from you. They might still shop at your store, but the total sale might be smaller since their gardening dollars are being used to buy more stuff online. It will become increasingly probable that the customer will still come to your store to buy some potting soil for the citrus tree they bought online. They might still come to your store for advice, for the succulents they bought online. They don't need fertilizer since the succulent place sold them some. Of course, as soon as they can get real time advice online they won't even need to come into your store and bug you with their questions.

This could be quite depressing for the small garden shop, or it could be invigorating depending on how you look at it. What can I say? I do much of my shopping online now. I buy locally roasted coffee online. I support a local business this way, and get really great coffee beans shipped to my door. This doesn't have to be the end of the small, local garden shop. People do want to support smaller local businesses, but only if they do it better than larger concerns. We worry that we can't compete with the bigger players online. That assumes that those already online are doing it right. What if you could take the the small garden shop concept and offer it to more potential customers online?

Your biggest competitor could be another small garden shop that decided instead of fighting change, to roll with it. They offer the same great service you do, but to a larger audience. They ship quick, offer free real time advice, and enjoy the good will of customers who feel they are supporting a small, well run operation. Sure it would be nice to have that fertilizer customer come into your brick and mortar store. They would be able to enjoy the ambiance, and maybe see some other stuff they want. You know what? They just want to get that fertilizer. They don't have time to come and visit your store. If you don't make it easy to  buy it from you, they will buy it somewhere else that is more accommodating to their needs.

QR codes won't help here.

According to Lowe's Japanese Holly is a native plant. They don't tell you where it's native, but why should that matter? Studies show if you put "native" on the tag people will buy more. The tag also tells us it's "easy to grow, low maintenance, and will save you time and money."  What does "Plants that grow naturally in your environment" mean? Which plants grow "unnaturally" in my yard? What does "naturally" mean anyway?

What makes a native plant "easy to grow"?  I know many people who have tried to grow native plants only to fail. Just because its native doesn't mean it's easy to grow, or that it will save you money, or time. Giving Lowe's the benefit of the doubt, we can imagine some worker has simply put the wrong "native plant" tag on the Japanese Holly. I still don't understand why being a native plant makes it easier to grow?

Some in my trade will be excited to see the QR codes on the tags. We are told that you need QR codes on tags so people can scan them with their smart phones. Then the customer can be forwarded to the Lowe's website and more information on this native shrub. Maybe the QR code takes you to a real description of the plant and the disclaimer that it was all a joke. Of course the horticulturists at Lowe's know what they are talking about. "We wanted to see if you noticed."

This is the lowest form of horticulture. The mass merchants look at plants simply as commodities. Japanese Holly is a "rounded evergreen shrub" that may or may not be native. Somehow they grow naturally, unlike the other plants in your yard, which I assume are growing "unnaturally". They are according to the tag a "foundation" shrub, whatever that means. Most important they carry the "one year warranty", which is odd since they are suppose to be so "easy to grow".

Who are the 5%?

So you realize that the world of garden retail is changing, and you need to change too. What should you do first? How about finding out who are your top 5% of customers. Who are the people who time and again shop your store, and then tell their friends about you? Maybe they have liked your Facebook page. Have you "liked" them back?

Businesses work so hard trying to get people to "like" their page, that they forget social media is about connecting. It's not a one way street where they like your page, and then sit back to receive the great news of your offerings. How are you helping them? By spamming them with sales offers, or pictures of the cats frolicking in the perennials?

Way too many in our garden businesses think it's all bout saturating the consumer 24/7 with their message. It's not!  Frankly, they don't care about your new line of plants. They care about what plants will live and thrive in their particular situation. How will you know their particular situation if your not paying attention to them? How many of your customers pages have you "liked" or "friend-ed"?

I hear from some in the trade who tell me that social media takes away from the important work of horticulture. The important work in horticulture these days is spreading the message.  The only way you can really get your message to spread these days is to have a "great message", and a group of people who will help you spread it. Likely that's the 5% of your customers that you need to know a bit better than you know them now.

How will you compete with this?

We talked a couple of days ago about, "The Day Your Supplier Sells Direct to The Customer".  It was about the inevitability that some of our suppliers will sell direct to the public, rather than using the traditional  sales chain of wholesale, to retail, to the customer.

Four Winds Nursery is a great example of a company that has decided to sell direct to the customer, as well as the box stores, and the smaller indie garden centers. Four Winds grows and sells mostly citrus trees and have been around longer than I can remember. They we're at one time a indie garden shop supplier, then the headed into the box stores, and now they will sell directly to the end user!

The online section of their web page offers foil gift wrapping. They ship to most of the country, and also have "Citrus Zester" you can pick up in the kitchen department. What a great gift idea for friends or relatives back east. A dwarf lime tree for their mojitos! Spend over $120 and you even get a 10% discount. Wait, don't people want to drive over to your store, possibly find that citrus tree, and then figure out how to ship to their relatives? You think they will be happy to hear you say "we don't ship"? What a hassle when all they have to do is "click" buy and ship at The Four Winds Online Store.

There are only so many suppliers of citrus trees, so the  trees that Four Winds ships would have been the same trees in your nursery! What a win for the customer, and Four Winds.

Welcome to the future of garden retail.

Where do you fit in?

Does that customer buy all their gardening goods from you? Some customers do, but I think the majority buy some of their gardening supplies from you, but also spread their gardening dollar around to other businesses.

When a customer shops at Whole Foods in Folsom they walk right past the “garden center” to enter the door. The garden center is some racks with vegetable and flower starts on them. These are not sad looking little starts, but organically grown starts produced by a small local grower. That small grower use to just sell to independent garden centers. Reality set in and they got the gig with Whole Foods. The soils are organic and produced by a small operation putting quality at the forefront. So easy to buy a few vegetable starts, pick up some potting soil, and head home with the groceries. There is no, “can I get these plants healthier or cheaper anywhere else?” You can’t.

That same person heads home and sees that tomatoes need fertilizer on a regular basis. They didn't call your garden shop, but looked it up online. Guess what? The place they looked it up online also sells the appropriate organic fertilizer. Why wonder all the way to the garden shop to buy fertilizer when all the information and products are a click away, and two days from delivery? Click, and now the fertilizing needs of the tomatoes will be met.

Something is eating the tomato plants. Let’s search “tomato plants chewed” and see what comes up. Ah, ah! Tomato horn worms can be picked off by hand, or you can spray organic BT on the plants. Low and behold the BT can be shipped overnight express from the very place that provided the information and advice. How cool and convenient.

About that garden center the customer never visits. No, they really don’t want to have to go there. It’s always crowded, smells like pesticides, and the people working there seem too busy to help you. Besides, you don’t want to feel stupid by asking stupid questions. Your intelligent and know how to use The Internet to find out just about anything. Frankly, if you never have to visit that Home Depot garden center again, that would be fine by you.

Where do you and your small independent garden center fit into this picture?

The day your supplier sells direct to the customer

The day the vendor you have bought from for so many years starts selling direct to the public, what will you do? Don't think it will happen? Remember all those wholesale nurseries that promised to only sell to Independent Garden Centers. They are now selling to the box stores, and not looking back.

The problem for the box stores? As these vendors get squeezed on costs, shipping, and everything else by the chains they will become less profitable. The market for their garden products continues to shrink. The need for much of the stuff sold is diminishing as the public continues to turn away from much of ornamental gardening. Please don't mis-undestand. There will always be people looking for these products, but not in the quantities needed to maintain the status quo as it stands today.

Business these days need to cut out as many middle-men as possible to maintain and grow profits. Who is a middle man? Lot's of box stores, garden centers, re-wholesale operations, sales people, and more. If you don't manufacturer or grow the stuff yourself, your a middleman.  How can you stay viable in this environment? I hope to discuss some of the options here, but the first step is accept that businesses will very quickly realize that many wholesale operations will find dealing direct with the customer may be on way to stay viable.

The British are worried about horticulture

It appears the British are concerned because, "research has suggested that many teenagers believe careers in the sector (horticulture) are for those who have failed academically." According to The BBC, "72% of horticulture firms cannot find skilled workers, with teens viewing the job as 'unskilled'".

A hopeful sign was the last paragraph from the article. According to a spokesman for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, "through our 'Future of Farming Initiative' we are working with the industry to help more talented, entrepreneurial young people build careers across the agriculture sector, including horticulture."

Just wording it , "The Future of Farming" is a good start.  We need to show that horticulture also includes the future of what we eat. Then the young people will show more interest. They are not necessarily interested in ornamental horticulture as much their parents we're. If the younger generation can understand that by becoming involved in horticulture they can change the world, then they might show interest. If they think horticulture is only about the perennial beds,  foundation shrubs, or lawn care, we won’t get the interest.

Get them hooked on the food side of horticulture, then the ornamental side may show more promise to them.  And forget about initiatives that are government supported. That will just bog the whole thing down. The trade needs to see what’s happening, and make the changes necessary themselves. Then you'll attract the type of new horticulturists we so desperately need going into the future.

Avoiding the real work

Here is a great 20 minute video from Seth Godins recent talk at Creative Mornings/New York. The key takeaways for me. Most people who are over using the social media platforms like Twitter or Facebook are doing so in an attempt to avoid doing the “real work” necessary for change. These platforms for some have turned into the 21’st century’s version of “watching the tube”. I enjoy using these tools, but do realize that they have a way of taking up your time if you’re not careful.

The other take away for me is, "we each own a media company." Our ability to broadcast ideas has never been easier, or so within reach for each of us. What are we doing with that ability? Broadcasting more noise, or changing the world?

There is also a twenty minute clip of Seth answering questions at the same talk. Here is that video. Useless factoid, Seth and I we’re born on the same day, same year. Enjoy the talk, and your weekend.

Don't follow the herd

I think it’s wise for many gardening businesses to have a presence on the various social media sites like Facebook, Twitter, and Google+.  Many of your customers are there, and perhaps you should be too. However, I do think it’s wise to try and get people to use your website, or subscribe to your e-news as an overall theme. My concerns are, as popular as some of these social media sites think they are, they may be doomed in the long run. Then what?

Social media has started to take an odd turn, but one that wasn't unexpected. As we talked about in the last post, “The Customer as Garden Celebrity”, social media sites are becoming filled with advertisements disguised as “social media”. It’s starting to become all so predictable that it’s boring. Frankly, when everything you Tweet, or put on Facebook is some form of advertisement, it’s time to move on.

I’ll be a bit bold and say that blogs and personal websites owned by the writer will never go away, and will slowly grow in importance once again. One of the reasons my family bought into TIVO when it first came out, back in 1999, was the ability to tune out the commercials. Facebook and Twitter are starting to resemble old school media with its constant commercials.

What's happened are many fell for the “instant celebrity” aspect of social media. The more followers you amassed, and the more you tweeted about any old thing the higher your Klout score, or ego would climb. Some people are using social media as a type of “popular currency” that may lead to you being offered goods or money, in exchange for talking about whatever they want you to talk about. I fell for some of this, until the people paying my way showed their true colors.

It’s not worth the loss of freedom to speak one’s mind. This is what concerns me with the present trajectory of social media. There seems to be too much following the herd, and less real discussion going on these days. The really great conversations are getting drowned out by the #hashtagging and commercializing. For me it’s time to focus more on my blog, and do a bit less scrolling through the feed looking for something that likely isn't there anyway.

The customer as "garden celebrity"

I receive Green Profit Magazine, published by Ball Publishing. It's a trade journal for people involved in the garden businesses. The last issue contained a article titled, "Get to Know the Garden Celebrities" in which we are introduced to 6 "personalities". According to Green Profit, "Knowing these garden gurus appearing on television, online, and in books and magazines can help you serve your customers and better meet their needs. Green Profit asked a few for their take on gardening and how the garden centers and gardening personalities can work together."

P. Allen Smith, "garden and lifestyle expert..."sums up the point of the article when asked what retailers can do to harness these personalities powerful brand. " The first step to bridge the gap is for retailers to carry the products and plants that personalities are using and endorsing. Manufacturers and breeders have national marketing programs that retailers can tap into. This gives the retailer the benefit of having a better idea of what is going to be promoted. For instance, my Platinum Collection of plants with Proven Winners is being promoted 24/7 through all of our media platforms."

Interestingly enough an article was written for the same publication in February of this year. Written by Merrideth  Jiles, general manager of The Great Outdoors in Austin Texas it's titled, "The New Trendsetters". In that post Merrideth say's, "Step back five or more years. Close to 100% of the trends in gardening were being set by our industry. National trends were presented on television by the Marthas, Jamies and P. Allens, or maybe an inspired set designed for a TV or movie studio. You could also see them in the latest issue of 'Better Southern Home & Fine Garden Living.'”

He continues, "Today, with tablet ownership estimated at 25% and sometimes even higher (I’m sure it’s higher for our target demographic!), garden trends are coming from all over the place. Pinterest, Facebook, Instagram, Tumblr, the list grows every day. And don’t forget all the Garden Bloggers. The biggest difference? It’s not Martha or Jamie or P. Allen out there trending. It’s artists, homemakers and many of the afore-mentioned screwballs that are sharing their ideas and creations for the home and garden with an online community."

So I ask the folks at Green Profit,  which advice do we follow? Follow and do as the "personalities" tell us, or follow and do as our "customers" tell us?

Our future customers are in debt, and out of work

The greatest challenge garden centers face is the declining size of the next generation, as well as the enormous debt the next generation is responsible for. The New York Times had this article concerning the student debt the next generation is amassing. Imagine coming out of college owing 150,000 USD and trying to find work in one of the worst job markets in decades. These are the people who are going to buy houses and shop at the local garden center?

Not only is the next generation in debt, and facing an awful job market, but there are just fewer of this generation to replace the boomer generation who is retiring. If the garden center trade is waiting for economic recovery to take place and get back to the way things we’re, it’s going to be waiting a long time. There are just too many garden centers, home stores, box stores, and wholesale suppliers selling plants for the market. Further shrinkage of the trade is inevitable.

I know most in our trade are tired of hearing about how the next generation doesn't want to garden like their parents did. I imagine it’s because we just don’t know what to do. I was talking to a friend who is a wine maker, and that industry is looking at the same thing. They are not buying or drinking wine like their parents did. There is way too much acreage in this State of California growing grapes for the need. How many of these young people can afford $20 USD on wine? How many just don’t drink wine? That trade is shrinking just like the garden center trade.

The younger generation is interested in growing food to eat, and some of the same gardening their parents did. There just isn't enough of them with homes and steady jobs to support the trade. I expect to see the results of this trend first in Europe where the youth unemployment is skyrocketing. It’s already begun and those of us who wish to stay in this trade will have to figure out how to service a shrinking demographic who's interests are different than the generations who helped build the trade.

The only certainty is a smaller and poorer demographic will be our next generation of customers. What can be done to survive and prosper in this environment? I think the future is very bright for those who can figure out which path to take. There will just be a lot fewer of us on that path.

Garden shops, do you sell this cool tool?

Sometimes the stuff we already sell is cool and unusual to those who don't know we sell them. Take these 4'tall cedar stakes which we're featured in a blog I follow called, "Cool Tools". Here is what the author say's about these "cool tools"." I used to buy tomato cages — open-ended, circular wire cages—to secure the plants — but they were never strong enough once the tomato plants got taller than 4 feet. The cages would slowly collapse, taking the plants with them, which was worse than if I hadn't used anything. Last summer I happened upon a simple, yet effective device to keep the tomato jungle under control: the cedar stake."

Did you hear that? The amazing cool tool known a 4' cedar stake. "Cedar stakes come in various lengths and can be found at any home-improvement or garden store. They are inexpensive, especially compared to tomato cages. I bought 6-foot stakes, one for each plant, and some stretchy vinyl tie that expands with the growth of plants." Wow!

The author mentions that you can buy them at home improvement stores and "garden stores" (notice we are not called "garden centers" any more). At the end of the post Amazon is mentioned as a place to by these amazing stakes at "12 4-foot stakes, $25" 

I found the post interesting since we in the garden center, I mean "garden shop" business, would likely never have looked at the lowly plant stake the way our potential customers might. We see them as a obvious choice when staking tomatoes while our potential customers see them as an amazing new way to hold up their vegetable plants.

We need to look at our businesses in a whole new light. Not the light of years of horticultural experience, but the eyes of potential new customers where everything about gardening is magical and full of fantastic devices to make gardening more successful   Sometimes those fantastic new new devices and ways of doing things are just something we forgot about in our efforts to keep abreast of "whats new".

SummerWinds Nursery and Target

Looks like Bay Area nursery chain "SummerWinds" is looking to occupy the now shuttered Target Garden Center locations. According to todaysgardencenter.com, "The first store, which opened in Albany, Calif., in early March, is on schedule to succeed." Sure beats being on schedule to fail.

SummerWinds is leasing the locations with the entrance into Target being closed. Target is the landlord leasing out the space to SummerWinds. "Target will still have a seasonal department that will carry gardening goods during certain times of the year. The primary overlap would be fertilizers and controls. SummerWinds is emphasizing its organic lines to avoid any overlap."

Here is where I think a mistake is being made on SummerWinds part. According to Leo Goria, who is heading up the Target project, "SummerWinds is using a different pricing strategy with this store than it does with its current stores, to the point that if the Target store turns into multiple stores, it will create a new division for SummerWinds. 'The profit margin for this store is just over 40 percent,' Goria says. 'The initial margin at a traditional location is more than 50 percent.' How does that play out in prices? A common perennial in a quart pot is normally $4.99 at a traditional location; at the Target store, it is $3.99.'"

Why the different pricing strategy? Are Target shoppers unable to afford the $1.00 more for a quality plant? Once you start to segregate your shoppers based on perceived ability to pay you have started down the rabbit hole of diminishing profits. It's almost like they are saying, "Target shoppers can't or won't afford plants unless they pay a 40% markup instead of a 50% markup?"

I like the idea of leasing the space out, but why price your stuff differently than your garden center stores? What happens when people walk in and ask that the same plant they saw at your SummerWinds Garden Shop be marked down like the same plant they saw at Target?

If people don't buy stuff, how are we going to stay in business?

I found this Fast Company article titled, "Why Millennials Don't Want to Buy Stuff" interesting (it's not just Millennials doing this either). From the first paragraph we read, "Millennials seem to have some very different habits that have taken both established companies and small businesses by surprise. One of these is that Generation Y doesn't seem to enjoy purchasing things."

As the owner of a small garden shop business this kind of news can be quite disturbing, or liberating. We also read that, "The biggest insight we can glean from the death of ownership is about connection. This is the thing which is now scarce, because when we can easily acquire anything, the question becomes, 'What do we do with this?' The value now lies in the doing."

Last week I had a discussion with some folks on Facebook after I posted this,"Seems customers with the most gardening experience use the least amount of fertilizer, They've figured out the 'nature' of their garden". Someone said, "nice, but not good for business is it?" I believe my answer may be a way forward for those who see this new "non-ownership" mentality showing up around them.

Here is my answer, "what's happened is those successful gardeners we're in many cases taught their methods here. We showed them a way to grow better without the use of synthetic fertilizers. Now that they are successful the're more into gardening than ever, and as such are expanding their gardens or trying new varieties. So by saving them the time and money on unsustainable gardening (and unhappy gardeners), we have enthusiastic customers who come in time and time again."

How will your business or venture survive and thrive in this new "non-ownership" world. It's not just the Millennial generation that is doing this. I see it with many people who are tired of the responsibility and costs associated with the owning of objects. It's a trend I don't see abating any time soon. It's actually a huge plus for small garden businesses who see the positives of this. It's about the process of helping someone become a better gardener (the experience), not selling a bag of fertilizer (stuff) when they really don't need it.

Day Trip to Half Moon Bay

Took a rare spring break and headed to our old stomping grounds of  Half Moon Bay. It was one of those rare days when the sun was shinning, and the temperatures we're in the low 70's F.

The flower show was amazing. Spring has arrived here in glorious color.

The only nursery we got close to was closed on Monday. Good for them.

So much color that even the parking lot's with their blowing bits of garbage seemed OK.

If it hasn't already arrived where you live, spring should be on its way to you soon.